
- Will Florida be soon deeply affected as well?
- Will a hurricane stir up the oil even further?
- Will the oil flow around the Florida Keys and wash up on the Eastern seaboard?
- When will it end?
- Will BP pay?



How does an analytic company like Google make its most important decisions?
If we are to believe the Google myth, we learn, first and foremost, that they test everything:
We test everything at Google. While any company would prefer real-life data to hunches and guesses, Google is more focused than most (or any) on getting conclusive proof that a new feature or function improves the user experience. We release many of our products in beta on Google Labs to get this kind of feedback early in the process so that we can influence the design and iterate quickly.
The ability to test lots of products and features on hundreds of millions of users is enormously valuable. This test-bed of users (otherwise known as google.com) provides Google with an incredible advantage over enterprise-only search vendors. Bad ideas can be discarded quickly and great ideas can be implemented rapidly, because we have confidence and data to show that they'll improve the user experience.
Of course, when all decision-making is data-driven, it can lead to "madness."
Here's how Douglas Bowman explains why he quit Google:
When a company is filled with engineers, it turns to engineering to solve problems. Reduce each decision to a simple logic problem. Remove all subjectivity and just look at the data. Data in your favor? Ok, launch it. Data shows negative effects? Back to the drawing board. And that data eventually becomes a crutch for every decision, paralyzing the company and preventing it from making any daring design decisions.
In the end, said Bowman, he "won't miss a design philosophy that lives or dies strictly by the sword of data."
The testing culture doesn't end there. On the Google Testing blog, James Whittaker describes the testing frameworks he's observed among the job applicants he's looking to hire:
Which one of these frameworks will be best for Google, asks Whittaker.
Which leads us to the topic of
this blog post: Just how do the executives at Google
make
decisions?
Do they base their decisions on the data? Let's look at one well publicized executive decision and the executive decision-maker: Eric Schmidt and his decision to buy YouTube.
On October 9, 2006, in a deal valued at $1.65 billion, Google outbid a number of other competitors to snag YouTube, the online video site which was growing at a rate far outpacing Google's own Video site.
The official Google line was as follows:
The YouTube team has
built an exciting and powerful media platform that complements Google's
mission
to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible
and
useful," said Eric Schmidt, Chief Executive Officer of Google.
"Our companies share similar values; we both always put our users first
and are committed to innovating to improve their experience. Together,
we are
natural partners to offer a compelling media entertainment service to
users,
content owners and advertisers."
So how did Eric Schmidt value Google? Was he analytical, precise, objective?
By his own admission, Schmidt says, in a deposition by lawyers in the Viacom copyright lawsuit, that there was very little revenue coming into YouTube to justify the price his company paid.
Schmidt says that he told his company's board of that YouTube was worth $600 million to $700 million.
Via CNET, we get Schmidt's own words:
Viacom attorney Stuart Jay Baskin: And what was management's valuation?
Eric Schmidt: Much lower than we paid for it.
Baskin: And how was that communicated to the board?
Schmidt: I told them.
Baskin: So why don't you tell us what you remember telling the board in connection with the valuation?
Schmidt: I believe YouTube was worth somewhere around $600 million to $700 million.
...
Baskin: What methodology did you use to come up with that number?
John P. Mancini, an attorney working for Google, objects.
Schmidt: My judgment.
Baskin: Was it based on cash flow analysis? Comparable companies? What were you using as the basis for your judgment?
Mancini objects.
Schmidt: It's just my judgment. I've been doing this a long time.
...
Baskin: I'm not very good at math, but I think that would be $1 billion or so more than you thought the company was, in fact, worth.
Mancini objects.
Schmidt: That is correct.
Later...
Baskin: Can you tell us what reasoning you explained?
Schmidt: Sure, this is a company with very little revenue, growing quickly with user adoption, growing much faster than Google Video, which was the product that Google had. And they had indicated to us that they would be sold, and we believed that there would be a competing offer--because of who Google was--paying much more than they were worth. In the deal dynamics, the price, remember, is not set by my judgment or by financial model or discounted cash flow. It's set by what people are willing to pay. And we ultimately concluded that $1.65 billion included a premium for moving quickly and making sure that we could participate in the user success in YouTube.
What this tells us is that even in the most analytic company in the world, the big decisions are still made on intuition.
Here's why. Analytics can only tell us about the past. We have no data on the future. So Eric Schmidt was making an intuitive decision about Google's own future through examining the intangibles.
For example:
1. YouTube's popularity was sky-rocketing, making
it the
runaway market leader among video-sharing sites.
2. It was crushing his company's own site, Google Video.
3. YouTube was up for auction and would be sold to a competitor unless
Google
jumped first.
4. Google overbid to ensure YouTube didn't fall into rival hands.
And that doesn't take into account two other points which made the deal a winner. From the very beginning, the Google philosophy has been - get attention first, then monetize it. And that is what this bet was all about.
Schmidt saw the attention trajectory in YouTube's growth, and he knew that if anyone could monetize that attention it would be Google. To leave YouTube for Murdoch, Microsoft, or Yahoo was not an option.
In hindsight, it may have been a brilliant move. Although the monetization has proved difficult, Google is breaking even today, which is far better than what has happened at MySpace, for example.
Hats off to Grist's David Roberts for putting together a thought-provoking line of thinking in Why Bill Gates is wrong. And no, he's not talking about Bing.
At the core, Roberts challenges the hubris of viewing all society's problems through the lens of innovation. That is, he says that Gates is fundamentally off mark when he sees the solution to our environmental crisis as primarily technical. Innovate our way out of this mess, says Gates. Not so fast, says Roberts.
Innovation ≠ technology, is what Roberts states, and he's right. Here's how he describes the sustainable city of the future:
Everything is linked up in a smart, integrated communications, power, and transportation network. The city "knows" which roads are congested and which parking spots are free. It can communicate to individuals what combination of walking, transit, and individual vehicles will get them where they're going fastest. Vehicles are small, electric, modular, and--via sensors, GPS, and broadband wireless--intelligent, so they can pilot and park themselves. They can be charged by parking-integrated stations or even electromagnetic coils embedded in curbs, and since they're interchangeable and easily customizable, they can be public goods (like today's car-sharing services), easily swapped out and thus continuously in use. The city uses the vehicles' batteries as distributed energy storage, along with other storage options including pumped hydro integrated into the sewer system. Rooftops, parking lots, and other marginal lands are covered with solar panels; small-scale wind turbines are perched on bridges and towers; cogeneration systems are attached to every industrial facility. Through smart design and sensing, every building and neighborhood maximizes efficiency. The city senses power demand, knows where power is being produced and stored, and continuously balances supply and demand.
So what's holding this vision up? By a wide margin, says Roberts, the biggest barriers to creating such bright green cities are social.
I agree. It's not technology - all of the technology needed already exists - but political will that is holding us back; remember Copenhagen?
Roberts describes the social innovations that need to take place:
Building a city that behaves like an integrated organism means developing a holistic, long-term plan that will coordinate multiple agencies and levels of government. Big, long-term thinking is not exactly an American strong suit these days. Also--and this is a underappreciated problem--cities are cripplingly dependent on the financial largesse of state and federal authorities. They have very little autonomy to borrow money and invest in their own futures.
There are all kinds of collective action and first-mover problems: Who puts the charging stations in if there aren't electric cars on the road yet, and vice versa? Who pays for a smart grid before distributed generation is in place, and vice versa? How can public infrastructure and private market development be coordinated?
Many of the investments involve high upfront costs that are paid back slowly over time. New financing models will be needed both for private individuals and companies and for cities themselves.
Changes in the way individuals live, work, communicate, and travel must be introduced in a way that maintains social cohesion and political support for further changes. That requires research in social psychology and other behavioral disciplines (sorely lacking in much policymaking). How these things are introduced matters just as much as what they are.
OK. So, let's ask again, what's the holdup? Why can't we address the challenges - both socio-political and technical? The answer: the structure of our democracy is damaged. When lobbyists have taken over every aspect of the debate, and the Supreme Court seconds this type of behavior, it doesn't take a genius to see that "the future" doesn't stand a chance.
The "inconvenient truth" has once again been buried. And to say that technology and innovation will take care of it is a huge mistake, one that might even cost us a lot in our near future.
As much as I respect Bill Gates's exceptional achievements there is always something fundamental missing for me to feel fully engaged when i hear his highly analytical presentations at TED. Always very seductive intellectually, extremely well analyzed and thought out, very well documented, supported by a wealth of data and facts, with solutions to complex issues made simple to understand ... but has human complex evolution ever been sorted out by analysis alone?





More information on the process here >>
Why does intuitive intelligence help you think in sustainable terms?
The answer is very simple.
Our instinct is responsible for the survival of our species. We can reasonably say that human instinct is pretty reliable because it's helped us survive successfully for thousands of years.
Our modern thinking, however, relies on our analytical intelligence. It's brought along the prowess of the scientific mind. The problem with this approach is that without genius scientific thinking can be very linear and very exclusive - to the point that it excludes our instinct not complying with reason.
Intuitive Intelligence blends our analytical mind with our instinctual aptitudes. Necessarily, it brings balance to our thinking. The Intuitive Compass™ facilitates sustainable business thinking and helps us design sustainable business models.
Intuitive Intelligence can be learned and developed, provided we accept that today most of us are not thinking but simply being logical, we can open up to this new mindset.
Why is it necessary to use intuitive intelligence?
Because we will not be able to solve current problems with the outdated way of analytical thinking that created these exact problems.
We face a sustainability imperative. We have to develop and use an intelligence that can think in sync with our ecosystems - in other words an intelligence that understands and respects the creative process of life.
All great scientists recognize that the history of our universe is the consequence of a number of fundamentals laws explained by science as well as a long series of unexplained accidents. Logic alone cannot explain everything. The same goes for business.
In order to help you engage the creativity of your teams, in order to inspire long lasting respectful relationship with consumers, in order to design innovative, sustainable and profitable business models, in order to lead organizations into a successful and sustainable future we developed an original model: The Intuitive Compass™.
How does the Intuitive Compass™ help companies achieve breakthroughs in sustainable innovation?

We use the The Intuitive Compass™ as a tool to assess and
chart progress as companies (and executives) learn to harness intuitive
intelligence in four key areas:
Strategy: how to employ
intuitive intelligence to create sustainable, innovative business
models which deliver real value to customers in their local environment.
Leadership: the transformative power of intuitive intelligence energizes and builds movements - with clarity of vision and purpose.
Work Culture: the ecosystem health of your business culture is reflected in your bottom line results. The Intuitive Compass™ helps create the open culture you need to succeed in the intelligent economy.
Consumer Needs: map your customers needs and wants using The Intuitive Compass™ - creating a value innovation agenda for your customers.
We help companies and leaders get a "southwest" perspective, and focus on creating sustainable value. Our mantra: sustainable business is a the core of future business success.
Analytic decision-making approaches a problem systematically. Leaders analyze a problem, generate several possible solutions, analyze and compare them to a set of criteria, and select the best solution. The analytic approach aims to produce the optimal solution to a problem from among those solutions identified. This approach is methodical, and it serves well for decision-making in complex or unfamiliar situations by allowing the breakdown of tasks into recognizable elements. It ensures that the commander and staff consider, analyze, and evaluate all relevant factors.
It may help inexperienced leaders by giving them a methodology for their lack of experience. The analytic approach to decision-making serves well when time is available to analyze all facets affecting the problem and its solution. However, analytic decision-making consumes time and does not work well in all situations--especially during execution, where circumstances often require immediate decisions.
Intuitive decision-making is the act of reaching a conclusion that emphasizes pattern recognition based on knowledge, judgment, experience, education, intelligence, boldness, perception, and character. This approach focuses on assessment of the situation versus comparison of multiple options. It is used when time is short, or speed of decision is important. Intuitive decision-making is faster than analytic decision-making in that it involves making decisions based on assessment of the situation rather than a comparison of multiple COAs (Courses of Action). It relies on the experienced leader's ability to recognize the key elements and implications of a particular problem or situation, reject the impractical, and select an adequate (rather than optimal) COA.
Intuitive decision-making is especially appropriate in time-constrained conditions. It significantly speeds up decision-making. Intuitive decision-making, however, does not work well when the situation includes inexperienced leaders, complex or unfamiliar situations, or competing COAs. Additionally, substituting assessment for detailed analysis means that some implications may be overlooked. Commanders use intuitive decision-making when time is short and problems straightforward. It is usually appropriate during execution.
If you have not already read "The Big Shift Index" report from The Deloitte
Center for the Edge led by John Hagel III, John Seely
Brown, and Lang Davison you should do so immediately.
This first release of the Shift Index reveals a startling fact: the return on assets (ROA) for U.S. firms has steadily fallen to almost one-quarter of 1965 levels; at the same time, the researchers found modest improvements in labor productivity.
Grim news, indeed. The report also finds:
- The ROA performance gap between winners and losers has increased over time, with the "winners" barely maintaining previous performance levels, while the losers experience rapid deterioration in performance.
- The "topple rate," at which big companies lose their leadership positions, has more than doubled, suggesting that "winners" have increasingly precarious positions.
- U.S. competitive intensity has more than doubled during the last 40 years.
- While the performance of U.S. firms is deteriorating, the benefits of productivity improvements appear to be captured in part by creative talent, which is experiencing greater growth in total compensation. Customers also appear to be gaining and using power as reflected in increasing customer disloyalty.
- The exponentially advancing price/performance capability of computing, storage, and bandwidth is driving an adoption rate for our new "digital infrastructure" that is two to five times faster than previous infrastructures, such as electricity and telephone networks.
The Shift
Index consists of three indices: Foundation, Flow, and
Impact, and 25 metrics that together quantify the stock, pace, and
implications of the shift. The index enables analysts to
anticipate changes, identify bottlenecks, and guide strategy.
Not everyone, of course, will choose to monitor the same metrics or assign them
the same weights. Thus, the Shift Index is less a single measure and
more an informational platform that will give rise to a diversity of models
and, a stronger collective sense about the pace and nature of change,
constraints and opportunities within that system. As constraints
fall away and opportunities increase, old configurations become unstable
and new structures emerge.
A number of
key ideas in the report resonated with our observations at The Human Company:
- the importance of creativity and innovation in ROA
- information "flows" over information "stocks"
- passion as a driver for higher productivity
- more and more discriminating consumers
- consistently declining return on assets
- increasing rate at which big companies lose their leadership positions
- rising executive turnover tied to increasing performance pressures
However, I was surprised to find one element missing in their measurement model.
What's missing? Sustainability and its impact on the economy.
Sustainability
is the business imperative for our time. From global-warming to competition for natural
resources, sustainability must necessarily sit at the core of any sound
business strategy. The sooner businesses understand this the better.
Organizations will have no choice but to
follow government regulations and anticipate consumers reactions and merciless
communication via ever more powerful social networks aiming at securing a
healthy future.
More importantly employers who align their businesses to create a more sustainable world will also attract, retain and empower more and better employees. Sustainability challenges have become so pressing that they not only affect us at a rational and emotional level but they also threaten our survival instincts. And as such they are bound to impact employee productivity, loyalty, and creativity. Meaning is the underpinning and decisive factor of human efficiency. How could a corporation careless of its employees' and employees' children future ever encounter long term success in a flat world?
In order to maintain competitivity, growth and profitability
organizations will have to build sustainable blueprints for the future. Take a look at Adam Werbach's latest book: Strategy
for Sustainability.
The Deloitte report is an example of a brilliant work conceived in an
intellectual tradition largely limited to our analytical minds. Yes, they do mention creativity and talent and yes, they talk about information flows, but I wish they had mentioned sustainability. A quick glance at the Intuitive Compass™ shows us that Deloitte overlooked the South West Quadrant. Regrettably, this is often the case with our business thinking.

Going forward, we cannot leave out the importance of our reptilian brain in its relentless ability to impact every second of our lives and its superior intelligence to sustain our species and hence help us make the best business decisions for a sustainable future (1).
Here's looking forward to the the 2010 Shift Index; I hope to see a section on sustainability and a study on the decisive intangible dimensions of value creation which intuitive intelligence is designed to help us reckon with.
(1) In 2004 MIT School of Science Picower Insititute for Learning and Memory has shown that the basal ganglia which are parts of our reptilian brain are involved in our most sophisticated decision processes (Nature, Feb 24 2005)
Those who criticize Obama’s speech as “just words,” would be well advised to look at history.
In a scene reminiscent of JFK in Berlin and Ronald Reagan exhorting Gorbachev to “tear down the wall,” Barack Obama has taken the initiative with the culture impasse between the West and communities across the Muslim world.
His speech in Cairo has set a new benchmark for leadership:
Not only did he manage to state his case with firmness and resolve, he was able to break through the years of mistrust by standing and acknowledging the truth on both sides.
His sincere yet calm delivery struck the right chord with the people in the streets of Cairo. So says Annelle Sheline, a Cairo-based American journalist:
In a taxi, I asked the driver for his opinion, and he launched into a happy spiel in heavy Cairene about Obama wanting peace and trying to make all the countries of the world work together. When I asked if this was possible, he responded that there had never been a president like Obama in the US, and therefore, “Aiwa, mumkin” (Yes, it’s possible).
His strategy was to understand that the imagination of the people resides in the South-West Quadrant of the Intuitive Compass™. He examines the hopes of the people in the street, and addresses them.
Sheline tells us that Dalia Mogahed, the executive director of Gallup’s Center for Muslim Studies had outlined the three points indicated by polls that Muslims wanted to hear.
Respect.
Respect from the United States for the religion of Islam and for Muslim cultures.
Cooperation.
No more unilateral action, but cooperation between equal partners.Issues.
Address the policies of the United States that have angered Muslims on key issues, including Palestine, Iraq, Guantanamo, etc.
Without respect no trust can be established - without trust little creativity and substance can unfold; without equality there is no real long lasting effective change; and, without integrity and introspection there is no growth. Obama’s speech touched on each one of these cornerstones.
Obama seized the initiative and brought the voice of reason back to the table. The President is, like it or not, a living symbol - and nothing is more powerful than symbolic action in an atmosphere of suspicion and hostility. The Times reports:
Barack Obama must have said something right if Osama bin Laden, Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran and the Jewish settlers on the West Bank all lined up to denounce his speech to the Arab and Muslim worlds.
For too long, the dialog on the future of the Middle East has been dominated by extreme voices. Obama’s speech spoke directly to the aspirations of the common man. He humanized America, by opening up and sharing his personal story.
Words are the weapons of change. Just ask Ted Sorensen.
And now, we see signs that the “Obama Effect” may be sweeping across the Middle East. Iran’s election too, has become a referendum for change.
Earlier, we saw Obama’s overtures in Turkey. The political commentators who were concerned that Barack Obama’s visit to Turkey was high on style but low in substance may not be as right they believe they are. Their view is focused on the North-East Quadrant of the Intuitive Compass™ - they are focused on measurable results and timelines.
Let’s look at a historical snapshot of public opinion in Turkey, courtesy of Gallup:
These are the same students, who according to to Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal, have, for the past eight years,”fostered deep anti-American sentiments exacerbated by an unpopular war in Iraq and a perception that the U.S. is biased toward Muslims.”
What we are witnessing in Obama is the promise of authentic leadership which speaks directly to the heart of people. The most powerful leader of the most powerful country in the world stood in the center of a circle of Turkish students in a university to address their concerns. The circle = cooperation, the center = respect, and addressing concerns = the truth.
With his speech in Cairo, Obama knocked down the psychological wall which separates western culture and the mindset of Islam - now the work at hand is to reach across the wall and shake hands for a brighter future for all. That will happen through the concrete actions people take in the weeks and months ahead.


